What Do the Polls Say About Obama after a Month? Average and Very Divided

Gary Langer at ABC News did a good poll analysis on President Obama after a month in the office and the result?  Obama’s popularity  is average when compared to the last nine presidents.  He reports:

“[ABC News] has approval ratings for each of the last nine elected presidents after their first month in office, back to Dwight Eisenhower. (We’re leaving Johnson and Ford aside.) There’s been a healthy range, from a low of 55 percent for George W. Bush after the disputed election of 2000 to a high of 76 percent for his father 12 years earlier. (using ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously).

But the average? Sixty-seven percent. And Obama’s? Sixty-eight percent, as we reported in our new poll yesterday. His initial rating, then, is strong – but it’s also generally typical for a new guy.”

The interesting fact coming out is how polarizing Obama is in the polls.  Obama said he would be the one to unify the country but in fact, the polls show he is the most polarizing president in more than 40 years and has basically the same Dem/Repub popularity numbers that George W. Bush had after the hotly disputed election of 2000.

“Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were the last two presidents of the less-partisan era. Reagan started with 89 percent approval among Republicans, 71 percent among independents and 56 percent among Democrats. Bush Elder’s first-month approval ratings from these groups were 90, 74 and 64 percent, respectively. Those are 18- and 33-point gaps for Reagan, 16- and 26-point gaps for Bush. That changed with Bill Clinton: He started with 86 percent approval from Democrats, but just 59 percent from independents and 40 percent from Republicans – gaps of 27 and 46 points, respectively. Then George W. Bush – 86 percent in his party, but dropping to 54 percent among independents (-32 points) and 37 percent among Democrats, 49 points lower than in his political base.

And now there’s Obama, who’s made reaching across party lines a point of principle in his presidency, with little to show for it so far. After a month in the hot seat, 90 percent of Democrats approve of his work, dropping to 67 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans. The 53-point difference between Democrats and Republicans in assessing Obama is numerically the biggest in data back to Eisenhower.

             Approval in February of 1st term:

                                   In-out  In party

           All   Dem   Rep   Ind   party   vs. ind.

Obama      68    90    37    67     53       23

Bush       55    37    86    54     49       32

Clinton    63    86    40    59     46       27

Bush       76    64    90    74     26       16

Reagan     68    56    89    71     33       18

Carter     71    79    58    69     21       10

Nixon      60    52    76    57     24       19

Kennedy    72    86    49    69     37       17

Eisenhower 68    61    84    66     23       18

ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously

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